| Citation: | MA J，LI R Y，ZHANG Q Y，et al. Network time reliability evaluation method based on uncertainty theory[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics，2025，51（4）：1267-1276 （in Chinese） doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2023.0191
|
The current network time reliability evaluation methods only consider the effect of inherent uncertainty but ignore the impact of epistemic uncertainty due to a lack of failure information on reliability evaluation results. To address this issue, a new method based on uncertainty theory was proposed. Based on the node range for network reliability, two metric parameters including single-node-pair time reliability and multi-node-pair time reliability were designed. An extended uncertain network model was proposed, which could directly model the epistemic uncertainty features on both nodes and links. Two algorithms were proposed to compute single-node-pair and multi-node-pair time reliability based on the most reliable path and the most reliable extended uncertain subnetwork. Finally, the proposed method was proposed to evaluate two time reliability metrics with a six-node network and the China education and research network (CERNET) backbone network as the example, and the results verify the correctness and effectiveness of the method.
| [1] |
GAUR V, YADAV O P, SONI G, et al. A literature review on network reliability analysis and its engineering applications[J]. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2021, 235(2): 167-181. doi: 10.1177/1748006X20962258
|
| [2] |
HONG S, LV C, ZHAO T D, et al. Cascading failure analysis and restoration strategy in an interdependent network[J]. Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, 2016, 49(19): 195101. doi: 10.1088/1751-8113/49/19/195101
|
| [3] |
HONG S, ZHU J X, BRAUNSTEIN L A, et al. Cascading failure and recovery of spatially interdependent networks[J]. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2017, 2017(10): 103208. doi: 10.1088/1742-5468/aa8c36
|
| [4] |
黄宁, 伍志韬. 网络可靠性评估模型与算法综述[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2013, 35(12): 2651-2660. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2013.12.32
HUANG N, WU Z T. Survey of network reliability evaluation models and algorithms[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2013, 35(12): 2651-2660(in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2013.12.32
|
| [5] |
LIU Z, HUANG N, LI D P. An algorithm for delay-reliability in communication networks based on probabilistic user equilibrium model[C]// Proceedings of the International Conference on Information Science and Cloud Computing Companion. Piscataway: IEEE Press, 2013: 135-141.
|
| [6] |
WU Z T, HUANG N, LI R Y, et al. A delay reliability estimation method for avionics full duplex switched ethernet based on stochastic network calculus[J]. Eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc-Maintenance and Reliability, 2015, 17(2): 288-296. doi: 10.17531/ein.2015.2.17
|
| [7] |
WANG W X, GUO R J. Travel time reliability of highway network under multiple failure modes[J]. Sustainability, 2022, 14(12): 7256. doi: 10.3390/su14127256
|
| [8] |
ZHANG X X, ZHAO M, APPIAH J, et al. Prediction of travel time reliability on interstates using linear quantile mixed models[J]. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2023, 2677(2): 774-791. doi: 10.1177/03611981221108380
|
| [9] |
JUNG Y, JO H, CHOO J, et al. Statistical model calibration and design optimization under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2022, 222: 108428.
|
| [10] |
BAUDRIT C, DUBOIS D. Practical representations of incomplete probabilistic knowledge[J]. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2006, 51(1): 86-108.
|
| [11] |
SIMON C, WEBER P. Imprecise reliability by evidential networks[J]. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2009, 223(2): 119-131. doi: 10.1243/1748006XJRR190
|
| [12] |
MUSHARRAF M, BRADBURY-SQUIRES D, KHAN F, et al. A virtual experimental technique for data collection for a Bayesian network approach to human reliability analysis[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2014, 132: 1-8.
|
| [13] |
FILIPPI G, VASILE M, KRPELIK D, et al. Space systems resilience optimisation under epistemic uncertainty[J]. Acta Astronautica, 2019, 165: 195-210. doi: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2019.08.024
|
| [14] |
BEER M, FERSON S, KREINOVICH V. Imprecise probabilities in engineering analyses[J]. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 2013, 37(1-2): 4-29. doi: 10.1016/j.ymssp.2013.01.024
|
| [15] |
ZADEH L A. Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1999, 100: 9-34. doi: 10.1016/S0165-0114(99)80004-9
|
| [16] |
MOORE R E. Methods and applications of interval analysis[M]. Philadelphia: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 1979.
|
| [17] |
MI J H, LU N, LI Y F, et al. An evidential network-based hierarchical method for system reliability analysis with common cause failures and mixed uncertainties[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2022, 220: 108295.
|
| [18] |
QI X J, CHENG Q. Imprecise reliability assessment of generating systems involving interval probability[J]. IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution, 2017, 11(17): 4332-4337.
|
| [19] |
ZHANG X F, LI R M, LIU M, et al. Evaluating travel time reliability based on fuzzy logic[J]. Applied Mechanics and Materials, 2011, 97-98: 952-955. doi: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.97-98.952
|
| [20] |
KANG R, ZHANG Q Y, ZENG Z G, et al. Measuring reliability under epistemic uncertainty: review on non-probabilistic reliability metrics[J]. Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 2016, 29(3): 571-579. doi: 10.1016/j.cja.2016.04.004
|
| [21] |
LIU B D. Uncertainty theory[M]. 2nd ed. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 2007: 205-234.
|
| [22] |
ZHANG Q Y, KANG R, WEN M L. Belief reliability for uncertain random systems[J]. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 2018, 26(6): 3605-3614. doi: 10.1109/TFUZZ.2018.2838560
|
| [23] |
康锐. 确信可靠性理论与方法[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2020: 63-65.
KANG R. Belief reliability theory and methodology[M]. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2020: 63-65 (in Chinese).
|
| [24] |
LIU Y H. Uncertain random variables: a mixture of uncertainty and randomness[J]. Soft Computing, 2013, 17(4): 625-634. doi: 10.1007/s00500-012-0935-0
|
| [25] |
WANG S, YANG D, LU J. A connectivity reliability-cost approach for path selection in the maritime transportation of China’s crude oil imports[J]. Maritime Policy & Management, 2018, 45(5): 567-584.
|
| [26] |
HOSSEINI A, PISHVAEE M S. Capacity reliability under uncertainty in transportation networks: an optimization framework and stability assessment methodology[J]. Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 2022, 21(3): 479-512. doi: 10.1007/s10700-021-09374-9
|
| [27] |
ZENG Z G, KANG R, WEN M L, et al. A model-based reliability metric considering aleatory and epistemic uncertainty[J]. IEEE Access, 2017, 5: 15505-15515. doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2017.2733839
|
| [28] |
KARGER D R. A randomized fully polynomial time approximation scheme for the all-terminal network reliability problem[J]. IAM Review, 2001, 43(3): 499-522.
|
| [29] |
YEH W C. An improved sum-of-disjoint-products technique for symbolic multi-state flow network reliability[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2015, 64(4): 1185-1193.
|
| [30] |
LIU W. Uncertain programming models for shortest path problem with uncertain arc lengths[C]//Proceedings of the First International Conference on Uncertainty Theory. Urumchi: Journal of the Operations Research Society of China, 2010: 148-153.
|
| [31] |
高原. 不确定图与不确定网络[D]. 北京: 清华大学, 2013: 21-26.
GAO Y. Uncertain graph and uncertain network[D]. Beijing: Tsinghua University, 2013: 21-26 (in Chinese).
|
| [32] |
李瑞莹, 李枚楠. 基于Monte Carlo和启发式算法的网络可靠性分配[J]. 北京理工大学学报, 2014, 34(7): 695-700.
LI R Y, LI M N. Network reliability allocation based on Monte Carlo and heuristic algorithm[J]. Transactions of Beijing Institute of Technology, 2014, 34(7): 695-700 (in Chinese).
|
Figures(4) / Tables(9)
Copyright © Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Address: Editorial Department of Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 37 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing Post Code: 100191 Email: jbuaa@cqjj8.com
Supported by:
Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co., Ltd.
DownLoad:
