| Citation: | ZHAO Z W，HAN Y Q. Risk assessment of violations of air freight forwarders[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics，2024，50（12）：3654-3665 （in Chinese） doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2022.0876
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A risk assessment model with quantitative uncertainty features is suggested in order to assess air freight forwarders’ violations on air cargo transportation in an efficient manner. The Bayesian network model is constructed based on the threat possibility, security vulnerability and consequence severity of violations of air freight forwarders. The average difference of experts, the lack of expert knowledge base and the polarization of expert evaluation are used to quantify the uncertainty of risk assessment results of air freight forwarders’ violations. Combined with the application example of Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, this paper analyzes the risks and uncertainties of risk assessment results of air freight forwarders’ violations. The study’s findings demonstrate that the risk assessment’s conclusions are consistent with the real state of air cargo, and the air freight forwarders’ priority order of violations, which is established based on the risk level and uncertainty indices, offers airlines and airports a new avenue for methodically preventing risks.
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